DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1482-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84948097823
论文题名: Global climate, energy, and economic implications of international energy offsets programs
作者: Calvin K. ; Rose S. ; Wise M. ; McJeon H. ; Clarke L. ; Edmonds J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 4 起始页码: 583
结束页码: 596
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Assignment protocols
; Economic implications
; Economic potentials
; Emissions mitigation
; Global carbon emission
; Greenhouse emissions
; Implementation practices
; Potential reduction
; Climate models
; baseline conditions
; comparative study
; economic analysis
; emission control
; energy conservation
; energy efficiency
; energy market
; environmental assessment
; global climate
; greenhouse gas
; implementation process
英文摘要: We demonstrate and apply methods for assessing global, system-scale effects on energy and greenhouse emissions of offset programs that explicitly consider the rules by which energy-based offset credits are awarded. We compare our approach to idealized calculations in which all regions, including those without mitigation obligations, face a common carbon tax. We find a substantial gap between potential reductions in emissions and those realized in a suite of hypothetical offset assignment protocols as well as between offset creation and system-scales emissions mitigation, even when project-scale additionality and compliance issues are absent and baselines are known with certainty. In the worst cases, seemingly reasonable rules were counterproductive—i.e. increased global carbon emissions, despite strictly meeting additionality and baseline requirements. But, even when we modified the rules for creating offsets to reflect more closely implementation practices, there remained a large gap between potential and realized mitigation. This difference is systemic and traces to the basic nature of offsets. Offsets subsidize the deployment of non-emitting technologies instead of penalizing the use of emitting technologies. As a consequence, offsets lower the cost of energy, and encourage greater use energy rather than its conservation. Thus, even in well-crafted programs, it is impossible to capture the full economic potential because the program lacks a means by which to engage energy conservation. We demonstrate that while offsets programs reduce the cost to regions with emissions caps, they may achieve this result at the expense of reduced global emissions mitigation. © 2015, U.S. Government. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84441
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Electric Power Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Calvin K.,Rose S.,Wise M.,et al. Global climate, energy, and economic implications of international energy offsets programs[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(4)