DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1476-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84947863961
论文题名: Examining why trends in very heavy precipitation should not be mistaken for trends in very high river discharge
作者: Ivancic T.J. ; Shaw S.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 4 起始页码: 681
结束页码: 693
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Moisture
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate prediction
; Extreme precipitation
; Global circulation model
; Heavy precipitation
; Hydrologic response
; Precipitation data
; Riverine flooding
; Variable infiltration capacity models
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate forcing
; flooding
; general circulation model
; hydrological response
; literature review
; precipitation (climatology)
; river discharge
; soil moisture
; streamwater
; watershed
; United States
英文摘要: It is firmly established in the hydrologic literature that flooding depends on both antecedent watershed wetness and precipitation. One could phrase this relationship as “heavy precipitation does not necessarily lead to high stream discharge”, but rarely do studies directly affirm this statement. We have observed several non-hydrologists mistake trends in heavy precipitation as a proxy for trends in riverine flooding. If the relationship between heavy precipitation and high discharge was more often explicitly presented, heavy precipitation may less often be misinterpreted as a proxy for discharge. In this paper, we undertake such an analysis for 390 watersheds across the contiguous U.S. We found that 99th percentile precipitation only results in 99th percentage discharge 36 % of the time. However, when conditioned on soil moisture from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, 62 % of 99th percentile precipitation results in 99th percentile discharge during wet periods and only 13 % during dry periods. When relating trends in heavy precipitation to hydrologic response, precipitation data should, therefore, be segregated based on concurrent soil moisture. Taking this approach for climate predictions, we found that CMIP-5 atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (AOGCM) simulations for a RCP 6.0 forcing project increases in concurrence of greater than median soil wetness and extreme precipitation in the northern United States and a decrease in the south, suggesting northern regions could see an increase in very high discharges while southern regions could see decreases despite both regions having an increase in extreme precipitation. While the actual outcome is speculative given the uncertainties of the AOGCM’s, such an analysis provides a more sophisticated framework from which to evaluate the output as well as historic climate data. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84458
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ivancic T.J.,Shaw S.B.. Examining why trends in very heavy precipitation should not be mistaken for trends in very high river discharge[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(4)