DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1462-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949947166
论文题名: Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa
作者: Ahmed K.F. ; Wang G. ; Yu M. ; Koo J. ; You L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期: 2 起始页码: 321
结束页码: 334
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Crops
; Food supply
; Productivity
; Agricultural intensification
; Climate change impact
; Distribution of temperature
; Future climate scenarios
; Interannual variability
; Precipitation patterns
; Regional climate changes
; Statistical approach
; Climate change
; agricultural intensification
; air temperature
; annual variation
; cereal
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; precipitation (climatology)
; West Africa
英文摘要: Resilience of crops to climate change is extremely critical for global food security in coming decades. Decrease in productivity of certain crops as a consequence of changing climate has already been observed. In West Africa, a region extremely vulnerable to climate change, various studies predicted significant reduction in productivity of the major crops because of future warming and shift in precipitation patterns. However, most studies either follow statistical approaches or involve only specific sites. Here, using a process-based crop model at a regional scale, we project the future changes in cereal crop yields as a result of climate change for West African countries in the absence of agricultural intensification for climate adaptation. Without adaptation, the long-term mean of crop yield is projected to decrease in most of the countries (despite some projected increase of precipitation) by the middle of the century, while the inter-annual variability of yield increases significantly. This increase of yield variability is attributed to an increase of inter-annual variability of growing season temperature and/or precipitation in future climate scenarios. The lower mean yield and larger year-to-year variation together make the regional food security extremely volatile. For a comprehensive understanding of climate change impact on crop yield, the distribution of temperature and precipitation over specific growth stages, in addition to growing season averages, should be accounted for. Although uncertainties are rife in calibrating and running a process-based crop model at regional scale, the present study offers insight into potential vulnerabilities of the agricultural system in specific countries or West Africa as a whole because of regional climate change. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84474
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Center for Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ahmed K.F.,Wang G.,Yu M.,et al. Potential impact of climate change on cereal crop yield in West Africa[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(2)