globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1495-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949664048
论文题名:
Debunking the climate hiatus
作者: Rajaratnam B.; Romano J.; Tsiang M.; Diffenbaugh N.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 133, 期:2
起始页码: 129
结束页码: 140
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gas emissions ; Greenhouse gases ; Global climate system ; Global temperatures ; Global-mean temperature ; Scientific Hypothesis ; Statistical assessment ; Statistically significant difference ; Temperature increase ; Temporal dependence ; Global warming ; carbon emission ; climate change ; global climate ; global warming ; greenhouse gas ; temperature ; trend analysis
英文摘要: The reported “hiatus” in the warming of the global climate system during this century has been the subject of intense scientific and public debate, with implications ranging from scientific understanding of the global climate sensitivity to the rate in which greenhouse gas emissions would need to be curbed in order to meet the United Nations global warming target. A number of scientific hypotheses have been put forward to explain the hiatus, including both physical climate processes and data artifacts. However, despite the intense focus on the hiatus in both the scientific and public arenas, rigorous statistical assessment of the uniqueness of the recent temperature time-series within the context of the long-term record has been limited. We apply a rigorous, comprehensive statistical analysis of global temperature data that goes beyond simple linear models to account for temporal dependence and selection effects. We use this framework to test whether the recent period has demonstrated i) a hiatus in the trend in global temperatures, ii) a temperature trend that is statistically distinct from trends prior to the hiatus period, iii) a “stalling” of the global mean temperature, and iv) a change in the distribution of the year-to-year temperature increases. We find compelling evidence that recent claims of a “hiatus” in global warming lack sound scientific basis. Our analysis reveals that there is no hiatus in the increase in the global mean temperature, no statistically significant difference in trends, no stalling of the global mean temperature, and no change in year-to-year temperature increases. © 2015, The Author(s).
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84480
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Rm 140, Stanford, CA, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Statistics, Stanford University, Sequoia Hall, Stanford, CA, United States; Department of Economics, Stanford University, 579 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Rajaratnam B.,Romano J.,Tsiang M.,et al. Debunking the climate hiatus[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,133(2)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Rajaratnam B.]'s Articles
[Romano J.]'s Articles
[Tsiang M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Rajaratnam B.]'s Articles
[Romano J.]'s Articles
[Tsiang M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Rajaratnam B.]‘s Articles
[Romano J.]‘s Articles
[Tsiang M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.