DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1456-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942505252
论文题名: Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas
作者: Rashid I. ; Romshoo S.A. ; Chaturvedi R.K. ; Ravindranath N.H. ; Sukumar R. ; Jayaraman M. ; Lakshmi T.V. ; Sharma J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 4 起始页码: 601
结束页码: 613
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity
; Climate models
; Forestry
; Stream flow
; Vegetation
; Climate change impact
; Climate change projections
; Complex topographies
; Evergreen forests
; Spatial resolution
; Tropical deciduous forest
; Vegetation distribution
; Vegetation dynamics
; Climate change
; agricultural production
; AVHRR
; biodiversity
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; data interpretation
; ecological modeling
; environmental impact
; forest ecosystem
; grassland
; long-term change
; mountain environment
; NOAA satellite
; spatial resolution
; streamflow
; vegetation cover
; vegetation dynamics
; vegetation mapping
; Himalayas
; India
; Jammu and Kashmir
英文摘要: Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960–1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84494
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, India; Centre for Environment, Jawaharlal Nehru Technological University, Hyderabad, India; Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Divecha Centre for Climate Change, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India; Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India
Recommended Citation:
Rashid I.,Romshoo S.A.,Chaturvedi R.K.,et al. Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)