| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-015-1434-y
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84942552028
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| 论文题名: | Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming |
| 作者: | Lehmann J.; Coumou D.; Frieler K.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 132, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 501
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| 结束页码: | 515
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Climate change
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Rain
; Decadal variability
; Heavy precipitation
; Observational data
; Precipitation events
; Rising temperatures
; Stationary time series
; Statistical modeling
; Water holding capacity
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; decadal variation
; extreme event
; flooding
; global warming
; greenhouse effect
; porosity
; precipitation intensity
; temperature effect
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| 英文摘要: | In the last decade record-breaking rainfall events have occurred in many places around the world causing severe impacts to human society and the environment including agricultural losses and floodings. There is now medium confidence that human-induced greenhouse gases have contributed to changes in heavy precipitation events at the global scale. Here, we present the first analysis of record-breaking daily rainfall events using observational data. We show that over the last three decades the number of record-breaking events has significantly increased in the global mean. Globally, this increase has led to 12 % more record-breaking rainfall events over 1981–2010 compared to those expected in stationary time series. The number of record-breaking rainfall events peaked in 2010 with an estimated 26 % chance that a new rainfall record is due to long-term climate change. This increase in record-breaking rainfall is explained by a statistical model which accounts for the warming of air and associated increasing water holding capacity only. Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84497
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg A26, Potsdam, Germany; University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Lehmann J.,Coumou D.,Frieler K.. Increased record-breaking precipitation events under global warming[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)
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