DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1478-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942504428
论文题名: Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change
作者: Liu J. ; Hertel T.W. ; Diffenbaugh N.S. ; Delgado M.S. ; Ashfaq M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 4 起始页码: 741
结束页码: 749
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Disasters
; Floods
; Hazards
; Risk assessment
; Control strategies
; Empirical analysis
; Extreme weather events
; Historical floods
; Historical records
; Social vulnerability
; Spatial and temporal heterogeneity
; Temporally resolved
; Climate change
; climate change
; disaster management
; economic analysis
; flood control
; flood damage
; future prospect
; heterogeneity
; historical record
; risk assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; vulnerability
; Midwest
; United States
英文摘要: Recent trends in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have raised the concern that climate change could increase flooding risks and property damage. However, a major challenge in attributing and projecting changes in disaster risk is that damage is influenced not only by the physical climate hazard, but also by non-climatic factors that shape exposure and vulnerability. Recent assessments of integrated disaster risk have been hampered by the paucity of literature analyzing local-scale interactions between hazard, exposure and vulnerability in the historical record. Here we develop an integrated empirical analysis of historical flood damage that emphasizes spatial and temporal heterogeneity in flood hazard, economic exposure and social vulnerability. Using the Midwestern United States as a testbed, we show that annual property damage from flooding is projected to increase by 13 to 17.4 % over the next two decades. At the state level, over half of the increase is driven by projected growth in housing units. However, at the county level, the dominant factor causing future damage varies, emphasizing the value of a fully integrated, spatially and temporally resolved approach to assessing flooding risk and control strategies. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84502
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 W State St., West Lafayette, IN, United States; Department of Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu J.,Hertel T.W.,Diffenbaugh N.S.,et al. Future property damage from flooding: sensitivities to economy and climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)