globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1451-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84942550201
论文题名:
Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA
作者: Kopp R.E.; Horton B.P.; Kemp A.C.; Tebaldi C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期:4
起始页码: 693
结束页码: 707
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Tide gages ; Centennial variability ; Expert assessment ; Expert elicitation ; North Carolina , USA ; Pre-industrial ; Relative sea level ; Sea-level reconstruction ; Tectonic uplift ; Sea level ; arch ; atmospheric dynamics ; coastal zone ; deglaciation ; flood ; glacioisostasy ; Holocene ; sea level change ; tide gauge ; uplift ; North Carolina ; United States ; Wilmington [North Carolina]
英文摘要: We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84511
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Rutgers Energy Institute, and Institute of Earth,Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Sea Level Research, Department of Marine and Coastal Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, United States; Earth Observatory of Singapore and Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Nanyang, Singapore; Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, Tufts University, Medford, MA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States

Recommended Citation:
Kopp R.E.,Horton B.P.,Kemp A.C.,et al. Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(4)
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