DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1095-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940688676
论文题名: Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade
作者: Otto F.E.L. ; Rosier S.M. ; Allen M.R. ; Massey N.R. ; Rye C.J. ; Quintana J.I.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 1 起始页码: 77
结束页码: 91
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Climate change
; Risk assessment
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Anthropogenic warming
; England and Wales
; Model simulation
; Modelling framework
; Precipitation events
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Summer precipitation
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; extreme event
; human activity
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; England
; United Kingdom
; Wales
英文摘要: The crucial question in the public debate of extreme events is increasingly whether and to what extent the event has been caused by anthropogenic warming. In this study we investigate this question using extreme summer precipitation events in England and Wales as an example for probabilistic event attribution using very large ensembles of regional climate model (RCM) simulations within the weather@home.net project. This allows us to analyse the statistics of high precipitation events in England and Wales, a region with a high quality precipitation observational dataset. Validating the model simulations against observations shows a credible shape of the distribution of 5-day precipitation, and thus confidence in the results. While the risk of extreme July precipitation events has at least doubled due to anthropogenic climate change in the modelling framework, no significant changes can be detected for the other two summer months. This study thus highlights the challenges of probabilistic event attribution of complex weather events and identifies the need to further decompose atmospheric features responsible for an event to occur for quantitative attribution analysis. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84533
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd., 301, Evans Bay Parade, Wellington, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Otto F.E.L.,Rosier S.M.,Allen M.R.,et al. Attribution analysis of high precipitation events in summer in England and Wales over the last decade[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(1)