globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0813-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940723469
论文题名:
On judging the credibility of climate predictions
作者: Otto F.E.L.; Ferro C.A.T.; Fricker T.E.; Suckling E.B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期:1
起始页码: 47
结束页码: 60
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology ; Decision making ; Forecasting ; Annual mean ; Climate prediction ; Decadal predictions ; Future climate ; Future planning ; Model performance ; Prediction problem ; Surface air temperatures ; Climate models
英文摘要: Incorporating a prediction into future planning and decision making is advisable only if we have judged the prediction’s credibility. This is notoriously difficult and controversial in the case of predictions of future climate. By reviewing epistemic arguments about climate model performance, we discuss how to make and justify judgments about the credibility of climate predictions. We propose a new bounding argument that justifies basing such judgments on the past performance of possibly dissimilar prediction problems. This encourages a more explicit use of data in making quantitative judgments about the credibility of future climate predictions, and in training users of climate predictions to become better judges of credibility. We illustrate the approach using decadal predictions of annual mean, global mean surface air temperature. © 2013, The Author(s).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84534
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Harrison Building, North Park Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, Tower One, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, London, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Otto F.E.L.,Ferro C.A.T.,Fricker T.E.,et al. On judging the credibility of climate predictions[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(1)
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