DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1292-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940723446
论文题名: Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts
作者: Lopez A. ; Suckling E.B. ; Otto F.E.L. ; Lorenz A. ; Rowlands D. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 1 起始页码: 15
结束页码: 29
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate forecasts
; Impacts studies
; Observational constraints
Scopus关键词: Classification (of information)
; Climate change
; Decision making
; Forecasting
; Uncertainty analysis
; Classification system
; Climate forecasts
; Climate projection
; Impacts studies
; Observational constraints
; Precipitation change
; Sampling strategies
; Uncertainty quantifications
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; decision making
; precipitation (climatology)
; temperature inversion
; typology
; weather forecasting
英文摘要: In recent years several methodologies have been developed to combine and interpret ensembles of climate models with the aim of quantifying uncertainties in climate projections. Constrained climate model forecasts have been generated by combining various choices of metrics used to weight individual ensemble members, with diverse approaches to sampling the ensemble. The forecasts obtained are often significantly different, even when based on the same model output. Therefore, a climate model forecast classification system can serve two roles: to provide a way for forecast producers to self-classify their forecasts; and to provide information on the methodological assumptions underlying the forecast generation and its uncertainty when forecasts are used for impacts studies. In this review we propose a possible classification system based on choices of metrics and sampling strategies. We illustrate the impact of some of the possible choices in the uncertainty quantification of large scale projections of temperature and precipitation changes, and briefly discuss possible connections between climate forecast uncertainty quantification and decision making approaches in the climate change context. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84539
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Rd, Oxford, OX1 3NP, United Kingdom; Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London, United Kingdom; AOPP, Oxford University, South Parks, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Lopez A.,Suckling E.B.,Otto F.E.L.,et al. Towards a typology for constrained climate model forecasts[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(1)