DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0911-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940719712
论文题名: Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming
作者: Calel R. ; Stainforth D.A. ; Dietz S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 132, 期: 1 起始页码: 127
结束页码: 141
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Economic analysis
; Economics
; Probability distributions
; Specific heat
; Temperature
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change mitigation
; Climate mitigations
; Climate sensitivity
; Conceptual analysis
; Economic evaluations
; Economic models
; Scientific researches
; Transient temperature
; Climate change
英文摘要: It has recently been highlighted that the economic value of climate change mitigation depends sensitively on the slim possibility of extreme warming. This insight has been obtained through a focus on the fat upper tail of the climate sensitivity probability distribution. However, while climate sensitivity is undoubtedly important, what ultimately matters is transient temperature change. A focus on transient temperature change stresses the interplay of climate sensitivity with other physical uncertainties, notably effective heat capacity. In this paper we present a conceptual analysis of the physical uncertainties in economic models of climate mitigation, leading to an empirical application of the DICE model, which investigates the interaction of uncertainty in climate sensitivity and the effective heat capacity. We expand on previous results exploring the sensitivity of economic evaluations to the tail of the climate sensitivity distribution alone, and demonstrate that uncertainty about the system’s effective heat capacity also plays a very important role. We go on to discuss complementary avenues of economic and scientific research that may help provide a better combined understanding of the physical and economic processes associated with a rapidly warming world. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84542
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom; Centre for the Analysis of Time Series, London School of Economics, London, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Calel R.,Stainforth D.A.,Dietz S.. Tall tales and fat tails: the science and economics of extreme warming[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,132(1)