DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1396-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937520586
论文题名: Objective estimate of future climate analogues projected by an ensemble AGCM experiment under the SRES A1B scenario
作者: Hibino K. ; Takayabu I. ; Nakaegawa T.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 4 起始页码: 677
结束页码: 689
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Earth atmosphere
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Climate projection
; Emission scenario
; Initial conditions
; Meteorological research institutes
; Reliable assessment
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Special report on emissions scenarios
; Climate change
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; estimation method
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; location theory
; reliability analysis
; twenty first century
; uncertainty analysis
; Japan
英文摘要: Climate analogues (CAs), regions whose present climates are similar to the future climate of a target place, are identified to assess the effects of climate change towards the end of the 21st century. The location of CAs and their present climates yield information that may be used to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change. Present (1979–2003) and future (2075–2099) climates are projected in an ensemble experiment using the atmospheric general circulation model of the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan. The ensemble members consist of combinations of four distributions of sea surface temperature, three convection schemes, and two initial conditions. The emission scenario for greenhouse gases is A1B of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A new method to identify the location of CAs is introduced, in which the uncertainty in the climate projection is taken into account. CAs for all land regions of the world are presented and those of four capital cities are analyzed in detail. The CAs are generally distributed equator-ward from the target places, consistent with the global warming. It is also found that ensemble experiments that encompass the uncertainty of climate projections can yield robust results for the CA and lead to reliable assessments of climate change. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84544
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Hibino K.,Takayabu I.,Nakaegawa T.. Objective estimate of future climate analogues projected by an ensemble AGCM experiment under the SRES A1B scenario[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(4)