globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1391-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937526938
论文题名:
Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection
作者: Pretis F.; Mann M.L.; Kaufmann R.K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期:4
起始页码: 705
结束页码: 718
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature ; Nickel ; Uncertainty analysis ; Climate research ; Competing models ; Control experiments ; Global mean surface temperature ; Statistical techniques ; Systematic failure ; Temperature increase ; Temporal uncertainty ; Climate models ; climate modeling ; comparative study ; cooling ; error analysis ; global climate ; hiatus ; La Nina ; simulation ; statistical analysis ; surface temperature ; temporal analysis ; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Explaining the recent slowdown in the rise of global mean surface temperature (the hiatus in warming) has become a major focus of climate research. Efforts to identify the causes of the hiatus that compare simulations from experiments run by climate models raise several statistical issues. Specifically, it is necessary to identify whether an experiment’s inability to simulate the hiatus is unique to this period or reflects a more systematic failure throughout the sample period. Furthermore, efforts to attribute the hiatus to a particular factor by including that mechanism in an experimental treatment must improve the model’s performance in a statistically significant manner at the time of the hiatus. Sample-wide assessments of simulation errors can provide an accurate assessment of whether or not the control experiment uniquely fails at the hiatus, and can identify its causes using experimental treatments. We use this approach to determine if the hiatus constitutes a unique failure in simulated climate models and to re-examine the conclusion that the hiatus is uniquely linked to episodes of La Niña-like cooling (Kosaka and Xie 2013). Using statistical techniques that do not define the hiatus a priori, we find no evidence that the slowdown in temperature increases are uniquely tied to episodes of La Niña-like cooling. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84563
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Programme for Economic Modelling, Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, George Washington University, Washington, DC, United States; Department of Earth and Environment, Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Pretis F.,Mann M.L.,Kaufmann R.K.. Testing competing models of the temperature hiatus: assessing the effects of conditioning variables and temporal uncertainties through sample-wide break detection[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(4)
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