DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1037-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84933670298
论文题名: Climate change risks to US infrastructure: impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage
作者: Neumann J.E. ; Price J. ; Chinowsky P. ; Wright L. ; Ludwig L. ; Streeter R. ; Jones R. ; Smith J.B. ; Perkins W. ; Jantarasami L. ; Martinich J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 1 起始页码: 97
结束页码: 109
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Air transportation
; Climate models
; Cost effectiveness
; Glaciers
; Greenhouse gases
; Highway bridges
; Melting
; Sea level
; Telecommunication networks
; Air transportation systems
; Climate change risks
; Global climate model
; Infrastructure sector
; Precipitation patterns
; Telecommunications networks
; Temperature increase
; Urban drainage infrastructure
; Climate change
英文摘要: Changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and coastal storms will likely increase the vulnerability of infrastructure across the United States. Using four models that analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation, this paper estimates impacts to roads, bridges, coastal properties, and urban drainage infrastructure and investigates sensitivity to varying greenhouse gas emission scenarios, climate sensitivities, and global climate models. The results suggest that the impacts of climate change in this sector could be large, especially in the second half of the 21st century as sea-level rises, temperature increases, and precipitation patterns become more extreme and affect the sustainability of long-lived infrastructure. Further, when considering sea-level rise, scenarios which incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting yield impact model results in coastal areas that are roughly 70 to 80 % higher than results that do not incorporate dynamic ice sheet melting. The potential for substantial economic impacts across all infrastructure sectors modeled, however, can be reduced by cost-effective adaptation measures. Mitigation policies also show potential to reduce impacts in the infrastructure sector – a more aggressive mitigation policy reduces impacts by 25 to 35 %, and a somewhat less aggressive policy reduces impacts by 19 to 30 %. The existing suite of models suitable for estimating these damages nonetheless covers only a small portion of expected infrastructure sector effects from climate change, so much work remains to better understand impacts on electric and telecommunications networks, rail, and air transportation systems. In addition, the effects of climate-induced extreme events are likely to be important, but are incompletely understood and remain an emerging area for research. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84569
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, United States; University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; AMEC Environment and Infrastructure, Boulder, CO, United States; Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate Change Division, USEPA, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Neumann J.E.,Price J.,Chinowsky P.,et al. Climate change risks to US infrastructure: impacts on roads, bridges, coastal development, and urban drainage[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(1)