DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-013-1048-1
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Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84964305207
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论文题名: | Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis |
作者: | Monier E.; Gao X.
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刊名: | Climatic Change
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ISSN: | 0165-0009
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EISSN: | 1573-1480
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出版年: | 2015
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卷: | 131, 期:1 | 起始页码: | 67
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结束页码: | 81
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语种: | 英语
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Scopus关键词: | Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change impact
; Climate sensitivity
; Community atmosphere model
; Ensemble simulation
; Extreme precipitation events
; Extreme temperatures
; Global system models
; Massachusetts Institute of Technology
; Climate change
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英文摘要: | In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model–Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events. © 2014, The Author(s). |
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资源类型: | 期刊论文
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标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84570
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Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
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Recommended Citation: |
Monier E.,Gao X.. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(1)
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