DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1154-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84933672330
论文题名: Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States
作者: Mills D. ; Schwartz J. ; Lee M. ; Sarofim M. ; Jones R. ; Lawson M. ; Duckworth M. ; Deck L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 1 起始页码: 83
结束页码: 95
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Greenhouse gases
; Health risks
; Risk assessment
; Sensitivity analysis
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate change impact
; Extreme temperatures
; Greenhouse gas (GHG)
; Metropolitan area
; Mitigation policies
; Potential benefits
; Potential health risks
; Sources of uncertainty
; Climate change
英文摘要: This paper applies city-specific mortality relationships for extremely hot and cold temperatures for 33 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the United States to develop mortality projections for historical and potential future climates. These projections, which cover roughly 100 million of 310 million U.S. residents in 2010, highlight a potential change in health risks from uncontrolled climate change and the potential benefits of a greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy. Our analysis reveals that projected mortality from extremely hot and cold days combined increases significantly over the 21st century because of the overwhelming increase in extremely hot days. We also find that the evaluated GHG mitigation policy could substantially reduce this risk. These results become more pronounced when accounting for projected population changes. These results challenge arguments that there could be a mortality benefit attributable to changes in extreme temperatures from future warming. This finding of a net increase in mortality also holds in an analog city sensitivity analysis that incorporates a strong adaptation assumption. While our results do not address all sources of uncertainty, their scale and scope highlight one component of the potential health risks of unmitigated climate change impacts on extreme temperatures and draw attention to the need to continue to refine analytical tools and methods for this type of analysis. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84577
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Stratus Consulting Inc., 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO, United States; Harvard School of Public Health, Department of Environmental Health, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard University, 677 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA, United States; Climate Change Division (6207-J), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC, United States; Headwaters Economics, P.O. Box 7059, Bozeman, MT, United States; Clean Air Markets Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1310 L Street, NW, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mills D.,Schwartz J.,Lee M.,et al. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas in the United States[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(1)