| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-013-0892-3
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84933676027
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| 论文题名: | Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment |
| 作者: | Paltsev S.; Monier E.; Scott J.; Sokolov A.; Reilly J.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2015
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| 卷: | 131, 期:1 | | 起始页码: | 21
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| 结束页码: | 33
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Earth (planet)
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Climate impact assessment
; Climate impacts
; Climate policy
; Climate projection
; Climate response
; Impact assessments
; Long-term risks
; Natural variability
; Climate change
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| 英文摘要: | We designed scenarios for impact assessment that explicitly address policy choices and uncertainty in climate response. Economic projections and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions for the “no climate policy” scenario and two stabilization scenarios: at 4.5 W/m2 and 3.7 W/m2 by 2100 are provided. They can be used for a broader climate impact assessment for the US and other regions, with the goal of making it possible to provide a more consistent picture of climate impacts, and how those impacts depend on uncertainty in climate system response and policy choices. The long-term risks, beyond 2050, of climate change can be strongly influenced by policy choices. In the nearer term, the climate we will observe is hard to influence with policy, and what we actually see will be strongly influenced by natural variability and the earth system response to existing greenhouse gases. In the end, the nature of the system is that a strong effect of policy, especially directed toward long-lived GHGs, will lag by 30 to 40 years its implementation. © 2013, The Author(s). |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84578
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Paltsev S.,Monier E.,Scott J.,et al. Integrated economic and climate projections for impact assessment[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(1)
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