DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1384-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84933675195
论文题名: Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response
作者: Millar R.J. ; Otto A. ; Forster P.M. ; Lowe J.A. ; Ingram W.J. ; Allen M.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 131, 期: 2 起始页码: 199
结束页码: 211
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Climate response
; Climate science
; Climate sensitivity
; Global climate model
; Planetary energy budget
; Radiative forcings
; Upper Bound
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; radiative forcing
; research work
英文摘要: The transient climate response (TCR) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. We show that recent revisions to TCR in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report have more impact on projections over the next century than revisions to the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While it is well known that upper bounds on ECS are dependent on model structure, here we show that the same applies to TCR. Our results use observations of the planetary energy budget, updated radiative forcing estimates and a number of simple climate models. We also investigate the ratio TCR:ECS, or realised warming fraction (RWF), a highly policy-relevant quantity. We show that global climate models (GCMs) don’t sample a region of low TCR and high RWF consistent with observed climate change under all simple models considered. Whether the additional constraints from GCMs are sufficient to rule out these low climate responses is a matter for further research. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84583
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Millar R.J.,Otto A.,Forster P.M.,et al. Model structure in observational constraints on transient climate response[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,131(2)