DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1373-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929963443
论文题名: Mitigating risks of future wildfires by management of the forest composition: an analysis of the offsetting potential through boreal Canada
作者: Girardin M.P. ; Terrier A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 4 起始页码: 587
结束页码: 601
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Fires
; Risk assessment
; Broadleaf species
; Climatic changes
; Forest compositions
; Mitigation options
; Northern forests
; Potential effects
; Regional climate
; Southern boreal forests
; Forestry
; boreal forest
; climate change
; community composition
; fire management
; forest management
; industrialization
; wildfire
; Canada
; Coniferophyta
英文摘要: Wildfire activity is projected to increase through upcoming decades in boreal Canada due to climatic changes. Amongst the proposed strategies to offset the climate-driven fire risk is the introduction of broadleaf species into dense-coniferous landscapes so as to decrease the intensity and rate of spread of future wildfires. Here we examine this offsetting potential through boreal Canada by searching for optimal conifer to broadleaf conversion rates that would stabilize the burn rate metric, and an upper bound for the maximum potential effect. We developed an empirical model relating regional burn rates to mean annual fire weather conditions and tree genus proportions, and applied it to regional climate and forest composition change scenarios covering the interval from 1971 to 2100. Results suggested that many areas in the southern and northern boreal regions will record either a constant or a decreasing burn rate and, therefore, will not require a change of forest composition. Besides, a conversion rate of 0.1 to 0.2 % year−1 starting in year 2020 was sufficient to maintain burn rates constant across much of the southern boreal forest. In northern forests, however, higher conversion rates were required to meet the fire objectives (0.3 to 0.4 % year−1). This mitigation option will be difficult to implement over northern forests given the size of areas involved. Nonetheless the estimated conversion rate for much of the southern boreal forest is attainable, considering that harvesting and industrialization during recent decades have already contributed to similar changes of the proportion of broadleaf species in boreal landscapes. © 2015, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84613
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre d’étude de la forêt, Université du Québec à Montréal, C.P. 8888, Montréal, QC, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, 1055 du P.E.P.S, P.O. Box 10380, Stn. Sainte-Foy, Quebec, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Girardin M.P.,Terrier A.. Mitigating risks of future wildfires by management of the forest composition: an analysis of the offsetting potential through boreal Canada[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(4)