globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1355-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939972940
论文题名:
Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America
作者: Shanley C.S.; Pyare S.; Goldstein M.I.; Alaback P.B.; Albert D.M.; Beier C.M.; Brinkman T.J.; Edwards R.T.; Hood E.; MacKinnon A.; McPhee M.V.; Patterson T.M.; Suring L.H.; Tallmon D.A.; Wipfli M.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期:2
起始页码: 155
结束页码: 170
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Ecology ; Ecosystems ; Snow ; Stream flow ; Vegetation ; Adaptive capacity ; Ecological systems ; Global climate model ; Mean annual precipitation ; Mean annual temperatures ; Potential impacts ; Temperate rainforest ; Total precipitation ; Climate change
英文摘要: We synthesized an expert review of climate change implications for hydroecological and terrestrial ecological systems in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America. Our synthesis is based on an analysis of projected temperature, precipitation, and snowfall stratified by eight biogeoclimatic provinces and three vegetation zones. Five IPCC CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are the basis for projections of mean annual temperature increasing from a current average (1961–1990) of 3.2 °C to 4.9–6.9 °C (5 GCM range; RCP4.5 scenario) or 6.4–8.7 °C (RCP8.5), mean annual precipitation increasing from 3130 mm to 3210–3400 mm (3–9 % increase) or 3320–3690 mm (6–18 % increase), and total precipitation as snow decreasing from 1200 mm to 940–720 mm (22–40 % decrease) or 720–500 mm (40–58 % decrease) by the 2080s (2071–2100; 30-year normal period). These projected changes are anticipated to result in a cascade of ecosystem-level effects including: increased frequency of flooding and rain-on-snow events; an elevated snowline and reduced snowpack; changes in the timing and magnitude of stream flow, freshwater thermal regimes, and riverine nutrient exports; shrinking alpine habitats; altitudinal and latitudinal expansion of lowland and subalpine forest types; shifts in suitable habitat boundaries for vegetation and wildlife communities; adverse effects on species with rare ecological niches or limited dispersibility; and shifts in anadromous salmon distribution and productivity. Our collaborative synthesis of potential impacts highlights the coupling of social and ecological systems that characterize the region as well as a number of major information gaps to help guide assessments of future conditions and adaptive capacity. © 2015, The Author(s).
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84617
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: The Nature Conservancy, 416 Harris Street, Suite 301, Juneau, AK, United States; Environmental Science and Geography Program, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK, United States; U.S. Forest Service, Alaska Region, Juneau, AK, United States; Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, United States; Department of Forest and Natural Resources Management, SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY, United States; Scenarios Network for Alaska and Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Juneau, AK, United States; British Columbia Forest Service, Coast Forest Region, Victoria, BC, Canada; Fisheries Division, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Juneau, AK, United States; U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Sitka, AK, United States; Northern Ecologic LLC, Suring, WI, United States; Biology and Marine Biology Program, University of Alaska Southeast, Juneau, AK, United States; U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States

Recommended Citation:
Shanley C.S.,Pyare S.,Goldstein M.I.,et al. Climate change implications in the northern coastal temperate rainforest of North America[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(2)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Shanley C.S.]'s Articles
[Pyare S.]'s Articles
[Goldstein M.I.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Shanley C.S.]'s Articles
[Pyare S.]'s Articles
[Goldstein M.I.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Shanley C.S.]‘s Articles
[Pyare S.]‘s Articles
[Goldstein M.I.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.