DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1354-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939938926
论文题名: Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska
作者: Marcot B.G. ; Jorgenson M.T. ; Lawler J.P. ; Handel C.M. ; DeGange A.R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 2 起始页码: 145
结束页码: 154
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Animals
; Birds
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Mammals
; Ecosystem functions
; Ecosystem services
; Emissions scenarios
; Global climate model
; Increasing temperatures
; Mean annual air temperatures
; Wildlife habitats
; Wildlife species
; Ecosystems
英文摘要: We project the effects of transitional changes among 60 vegetation and other land cover types (“ecotypes”) in northwest Alaska over the 21st century on habitats of 162 bird and 39 mammal species known or expected to occur regularly in the region. This analysis, encompassing a broad suite of arctic and boreal wildlife species, entailed building wildlife-habitat matrices denoting levels of use of each ecotype by each species, and projecting habitat changes under historic and expected accelerated future rates of change from increasing mean annual air temperature based on the average of 5 global climate models under the A1B emissions scenario, and from potential influence of a set of 23 biophysical drivers. Under historic rates of change, we project that 52 % of the 201 species will experience an increase in medium- and high-use habitats, 3 % no change, and 45 % a decrease, and that a greater proportion of mammal species (62 %) will experience habitat declines than will bird species (50 %). Outcomes become more dire (more species showing habitat loss) under projections made from effects of biophysical drivers and especially from increasing temperature, although species generally associated with increasing shrub and tree ecotypes will likely increase in distribution. Changes in wildlife habitats likely will also affect trophic cascades, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services; of particular significance are the projected declines in habitats of most small mammals that form the prey base for mesocarnivores and raptors, and habitat declines in 25 of the 50 bird and mammal species used for subsistence hunting and trapping. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84635
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, Portland, OR, United States; Alaska Ecoscience, Fairbanks, AK, United States; National Park Service, Fairbanks, AK, United States; US Geological Survey, Anchorage, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Marcot B.G.,Jorgenson M.T.,Lawler J.P.,et al. Projected changes in wildlife habitats in Arctic natural areas of northwest Alaska[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(2)