DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1230-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939417652
论文题名: Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: a hybrid assessment
作者: Schlosser C.A. ; Strzepek K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 130, 期: 1 起始页码: 9
结束页码: 19
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Watersheds
; Climate mitigations
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme temperatures
; Frequency distributions
; Global system models
; Hybrid techniques
; Precipitation change
; Regional climate changes
; Climate change
; air temperature
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; environmental policy
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; river basin
; Zambezi Basin
英文摘要: Projections of regional changes in surface-air temperature and precipitation, in response to unconstrained emissions as well as a climate mitigation policy, for the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB) are presented. These projections are cast in a probabilistic context through a hybrid technique that combines the projections of the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) to pattern-change kernels from climate-model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Distributional changes of precipitation and surface-air temperature averaged over the western and eastern ZRB are considered. Overall, the most significant response to climate policy is seen in the spring. Frequency distributions of precipitation change for the unconstrained emission scenario indicate a majority of the outcomes to be drier by 2050, although the distribution spans both increased and decreased precipitation. Through climate policy, the distributions’ total range of outcomes collapses considerably, and perhaps more importantly, the mode of the distribution aligns with zero precipitation change. For surface-air temperature, climate policy consistently reduces the modal value of warming, and this reduction is strongest for the western ZRB. Climate policy also considerably abates the occurrence of the most extreme temperature increases, but the minimum warming in the distributions is less affected. © 2014, UNU-WIDER. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84640
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, E19-411, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Schlosser C.A.,Strzepek K.. Regional climate change of the greater Zambezi River Basin: a hybrid assessment[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,130(1)