DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1338-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925533407
论文题名: Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin
作者: Júnior J.L.S. ; Tomasella J. ; Rodriguez D.A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 129, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 117
结束页码: 129
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Deforestation
; Economics
; Forestry
; Hydrology
; Land use
; Rivers
; Watersheds
; Climate change impact
; Climate change projections
; Climate model simulations
; Economic development
; Global climate changes
; Hydrological modeling
; Land use and land cover change
; Large scale hydrological model
; Climate change
英文摘要: Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country’s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Because of evidences that climate change impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover change caused by deforestation could affect the river’s hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a large-scale hydrological model for the period from 1970–1990 and analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011–2099. Although results show variability among models, consensus scenarios indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the basin. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84661
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centro de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre - INPE, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Júnior J.L.S.,Tomasella J.,Rodriguez D.A.. Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,129(2018-01-02)