DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1287-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84916925680
论文题名: Temporal trends in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity in the Mediterranean region: a case study in southern Tuscany, Italy
作者: Vallebona C. ; Pellegrino E. ; Frumento P. ; Bonari E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 128, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 139
结束页码: 151
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Conservation
; Erosion
; Flood control
; Gages
; Adaptation strategies
; High temporal resolution
; Intense precipitation
; Logistic regressions
; Mediterranean areas
; Mediterranean region
; Rainfall erosivity
; Rainfall intensity
; Rain
; Mediterranean environment
; precipitation intensity
; raingauge
; regression analysis
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; temporal variation
; Italy
; Italy
; Tuscany
英文摘要: Worldwide climate is likely to become more variable or extreme with increases in intense precipitation. In Mediterranean areas, climate change will increase the risks of droughts, flash floods and soil erosion. Despite rainfall intensity being a key factor in erosive processes, in these areas information on extreme rainfall intensity and the associated erosivity, based on high-temporal resolution data, is either non homogeneous or scarce. These parameters thus need to be assessed in order to highlight suitable adaptation strategies. In this paper, an hourly rainfall intensity (RI) data series is analyzed together with the corresponding 1-min rainfall intensity maximum (RIm) of 23 rainfall gauges located in Tuscany, Italy, in an area highly vulnerable to erosion. The aim is to look for temporal trends (1989–2010) in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity. Fixed effect logistic regression shows statistically significant temporal increases in the number of RI and RIm exceedances over the 95th percentile threshold. Winter is shown to be the season with the strongest increasing trend in coastal and inland rainfall gauge groups, followed by spring for the coastal group and autumn for the inland group. Linear regressions show that in the inland group there is a temporal increase in rainfall erosivity and on a seasonal basis, the highest increase is observed in autumn. By contrast, for the coastal group this increasing trend is only detectable for spring and winter. Such an increase in rainfall erosivity and its potential continuation could have a strong adverse effect on Mediterranean land conservation. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84663
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Institute of Life Sciences, P.za Martiri della Libertà 33, Pisa, Italy; Unit of Biostatistics, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Vallebona C.,Pellegrino E.,Frumento P.,et al. Temporal trends in extreme rainfall intensity and erosivity in the Mediterranean region: a case study in southern Tuscany, Italy[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,128(2018-01-02)