DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1304-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925515816
论文题名: Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy
作者: Neumann J.E. ; Emanuel K. ; Ravela S. ; Ludwig L. ; Kirshen P. ; Bosma K. ; Martinich J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 129, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 337
结束页码: 349
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Cost effectiveness
; Floods
; Glaciers
; Greenhouse gases
; Hurricanes
; Melting
; Risk assessment
; Sea level
; Storms
; Value engineering
; Climate assessment
; Climate sensitivity
; Economic estimate
; General circulation model
; Greenhouse gas (GHG)
; Ice sheet melting
; Mitigation policies
; Research programs
; Economic and social effects
英文摘要: Recent literature, the US Global Change Research Program’s National Climate Assessment, and recent events, such as Hurricane Sandy, highlight the need to take better account of both storm surge and sea-level rise (SLR) in assessing coastal risks of climate change. This study combines three models—a tropical cyclone simulation model; a storm surge model; and a model for economic impact and adaptation—to estimate the joint effects of storm surge and SLR for the US coast through 2100. The model is tested using multiple SLR scenarios, including those incorporating estimates of dynamic ice-sheet melting, two global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy scenarios, and multiple general circulation model climate sensitivities. The results illustrate that a large area of coastal land and property is at risk of damage from storm surge today; that land area and economic value at risk expands over time as seas rise and as storms become more intense; that adaptation is a cost-effective response to this risk, but residual impacts remain after adaptation measures are in place; that incorporating site-specific episodic storm surge increases national damage estimates by a factor of two relative to SLR-only estimates, with greater impact on the East and Gulf coasts; and that mitigation of GHGs contributes to significant lessening of damages. For a mid-range climate-sensitivity scenario that incorporates dynamic ice sheet melting, the approach yields national estimates of the impacts of storm surge and SLR of $990 billion through 2100 (net of adaptation, cumulative undiscounted 2005$); GHG mitigation policy reduces the impacts of the mid-range climate-sensitivity estimates by $84 to $100 billion. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84681
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Industrial Economics, 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA, United States; WindRiskTech, L.L.C., and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States; Woods Hole Group, Falmouth, MA, United States; Climate Change Division, USEPA, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Neumann J.E.,Emanuel K.,Ravela S.,et al. Joint effects of storm surge and sea-level rise on US Coasts: new economic estimates of impacts, adaptation, and benefits of mitigation policy[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,129(2018-01-02)