DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925507834
论文题名: Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
作者: Williams A. ; White N. ; Mushtaq S. ; Cockfield G. ; Power B. ; Kouadio L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 129, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 183
结束页码: 196
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Cotton
; Economics
; Physiological models
; Soil moisture
; Agricultural production system
; Biophysical simulation models
; Cotton production
; Future climate projections
; Irrigation amounts
; Meteorological parameters
; Physiological response
; Water availability
; Climate change
英文摘要: The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17 %. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9 % by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6 % in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50 % to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84683
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, Institute of Agriculture and Environment, University of Southern Queensland, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, Australia; AgriScience -Queensland—Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Toowoomba, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Williams A.,White N.,Mushtaq S.,et al. Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,129(2018-01-02)