globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1320-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925538011
论文题名:
Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3
作者: Gensini V.A.; Mote T.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2015
卷: 129, 期:2018-01-02
起始页码: 307
结束页码: 321
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Hazards ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Community climate system model ; Convective weather ; Dynamical downscaling ; Environmental conditions ; Environmental parameter ; High resolution ; Ohio River Valley ; Weather research and forecasting models ; Weather forecasting
英文摘要: High-resolution dynamical downscaling is used to explore 2080–2090 peak-season hazardous convective weather as simulated from the Community Climate System Model version 3. Downscaling to 4 km grid spacing is performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are simulated using a model proxy at hourly intervals for locations east of the U.S. Continental Divide. Future period results are placed into context using 1980–1990 output. While a limited sample size exists, a statistically significant increase in synthetic severe weather activity is noted in March, whereas event frequency is shown to slightly increase in April, and stay the same in May. These increases are primarily found in the Mississippi, Tennessee, and Ohio River valleys. Diurnally, most of the increase in hazardous convective weather activity is shown to be in the hours surrounding local sunset. Peak-season severe weather is also shown to be more variable in the future with a skewed potential toward larger counts. Finally, modeled proxy events are compared to environmental parameters known to generate hazardous convective weather activity. These environmental conditions explain over 80 % of the variance associated with modeled reports during March–May and show an increasing future tendency. Finally, challenges associated with dynamical downscaling for purposes of resolving severe local storms are discussed. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84692
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Meteorology Program, College of DuPage, 425 Fawell Boulevard, Glen Ellyn, IL, United States; Climatology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, 210 Field Street, Athens, GA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Gensini V.A.,Mote T.L.. Downscaled estimates of late 21st century severe weather from CCSM3[J]. Climatic Change,2015-01-01,129(2018-01-02)
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