DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1255-4
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939881792
论文题名: Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change
作者: Ranson M. ; Kousky C. ; Ruth M. ; Jantarasami L. ; Crimmins A. ; Tarquinio L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 2 起始页码: 227
结束页码: 241
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Forecasting
; Hurricanes
; Probability distributions
; Storms
; Tropics
; Ensemble prediction
; Extratropical cyclones
; Global surface air temperature
; Hurricane damage
; Impact of changes
; Substantial variations
; Tropical cyclone
; Western North Pacific
; Climate change
英文摘要: This paper provides the first quantitative synthesis of the rapidly growing literature on future tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change. We estimate a probability distribution for the predicted impact of changes in global surface air temperatures on future storm damages, using an ensemble of 478 estimates of the temperature-damage relationship from nineteen studies. Our analysis produces three main empirical results. First, we find strong but not conclusive support for the hypothesis that climate change will cause damages from tropical cyclones and wind storms to increase, with most models predicting higher future storm damages due to climate change. Second, there is substantial variation in projected changes in losses across regions. Potential changes in damages are greatest in the North Atlantic basin, where the multi-model average predicts that a 2.5 °C increase in global surface air temperature would cause hurricane damages to increase by 63 %. The ensemble predictions for Western North Pacific tropical cyclones and European wind storms (extratropical cyclones) are +28 % and +23 %, respectively. Finally, our analysis shows that existing models of storm damages under climate change generate a wide range of predictions, ranging from moderate decreases to very large increases in losses. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84703
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Abt Associates, 55 Wheeler Street, Cambridge, MA, United States; Resources for the Future, 1616 P St. NW, Washington, DC, United States; Northeastern University, 310 Renaissance Park, Boston, MA, United States; Climate Change Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ranson M.,Kousky C.,Ruth M.,et al. Tropical and extratropical cyclone damages under climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)