| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1254-5
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84939932917
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| 论文题名: | Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate |
| 作者: | Cheng L.; AghaKouchak A.; Gilleland E.; Katz R.W.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 127, 期:2 | | 起始页码: | 353
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| 结束页码: | 369
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Bayesian networks
; Evolutionary algorithms
; Global optimization
; Inference engines
; Markov processes
; Optimization
; Risk perception
; Value engineering
; Annual temperatures
; Bayesian approaches
; Differential Evolution
; Exceedance probability
; Extreme value analysis
; Global temperatures
; Posterior probability
; Uncertainty quantifications
; Uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | This paper introduces a framework for estimating stationary and non-stationary return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes using Bayesian inference. This framework is implemented in the Non-stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) software package, explicitly designed to facilitate analysis of extremes in the geosciences. In a Bayesian approach, NEVA estimates the extreme value parameters with a Differential Evolution Markov Chain (DE-MC) approach for global optimization over the parameter space. NEVA includes posterior probability intervals (uncertainty bounds) of estimated return levels through Bayesian inference, with its inherent advantages in uncertainty quantification. The software presents the results of non-stationary extreme value analysis using various exceedance probability methods. We evaluate both stationary and non-stationary components of the package for a case study consisting of annual temperature maxima for a gridded global temperature dataset. The results show that NEVA can reliably describe extremes and their return levels. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84705
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Cheng L.,AghaKouchak A.,Gilleland E.,et al. Non-stationary extreme value analysis in a changing climate[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)
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