DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1261-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84940005154
论文题名: The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo
作者: Aylen J. ; Albertson K. ; Cavan G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 2 起始页码: 183
结束页码: 197
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Meteorology
; Climate condition
; Global climate changes
; Human activities
; Leisure facilities
; Leisure time
; Nonlinear effect
; Time series models
; Visitor numbers
; Climate change
英文摘要: Warmer, drier summer weather brought by global climate change should encourage use of outdoor leisure facilities. Yet few studies assess the effect of current weather and climate conditions upon visits to leisure attractions. Statistical time series models are used to analyse the short-run impact of weather and the long-run impact of climate upon visits to Chester Zoo, England. Temperature has a non-linear effect on visit levels. Daily visits rise with temperature up to a threshold around 21 °C. Thereafter visitor numbers drop on hot days. Visits are redistributed over time in accordance with the weather. Visitors discouraged by rainy weather one day turn up later when the weather improves. Otherwise, visitor behaviour is mainly influenced by the annual rhythm of the year and the pattern of public and school holidays. Out-of-sample tests suggest almost 70 % of the variation in visit levels can be explained by the combination of weather and time of year. Climate change is likely to redistribute visitors across the year. But it does not follow that “summer” visitor behaviour will transfer to spring and autumn. Day length, existing patterns of human activity and availability of leisure time constrain visit levels regardless of better weather. The main implication of potential climate change is the need for physical adaptation of the tourist environment as temperatures rise and rainfall diminishes in summer. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84708
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, Manchester Business School, Harold Hankins Building, The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom; Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, United Kingdom; School of Science and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, John Dalton Building, Chester Street, Manchester, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Aylen J.,Albertson K.,Cavan G.. The impact of weather and climate on tourist demand: the case of Chester Zoo[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)