DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1257-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939881923
论文题名: Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5
作者: Thibeault J.M. ; Seth A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 127, 期: 2 起始页码: 273
结束页码: 287
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate extremes
; CMIP5
; ETCCDI
; HadEX2
; Northeast
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Regional planning
; Climate extremes
; CMIP5
; ETCCDI
; HadEX2
; Northeast
; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate extremes indices are evaluated for the northeast United States and adjacent Canada (Northeast) using gridded observations and twenty-three CMIP5 coupled models. Previous results have demonstrated observed increases in warm and wet extremes and decreases in cold extremes, consistent with changes expected in a warming world. Here, a significant shift is found in the distribution of observed total annual precipitation over 1981-2010. In addition, significant positive trends are seen in all observed wet precipitation indices over 1951-2010. For the Northeast region, CMIP5 models project significant shifts in the distributions of most temperature and precipitation indices by 2041-2070. By the late century, the coldest (driest) future extremes are projected to be warmer (wetter) than the warmest (wettest) extremes at present. The multimodel interquartile range compares well with observations, providing a measure of confidence in the projections in this region. Spatial analysis suggests that the largest increases in heavy precipitation extremes are projected for northern, coastal, and mountainous areas. Results suggest that the projected increase in total annual precipitation is strongly influenced by increases in winter wet extremes. The largest decreases in cold extremes are projected for northern and interior portions of the Northeast, while the largest increases in summer warm extremes are projected for densely populated southern, central, and coastal areas. This study provides a regional analysis and verification of the latest generation of CMIP global models specifically for the Northeast, useful to stakeholders focused on understanding and adapting to climate change and its impacts in the region. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84709
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, 215 Glenbrook Road, Unit 4148, Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Thibeault J.M.,Seth A.. Changing climate extremes in the Northeast United States: observations and projections from CMIP5[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,127(2)