DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1229-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027918337
论文题名: Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States
作者: Stavros E.N. ; Abatzoglou J.T. ; McKenzie D. ; Larkin N.K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 455
结束页码: 468
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Changing climate
; Climate projection
; Future projections
; Generalized linear model
; Pacific Northwest
; Rocky Mountains
; Seasonal changes
; Western United States
; Climate change
; climate change
; future prospect
; mitigation
; wildfire
; Great Basin
; Pacific Northwest
; Rocky Mountains
; United States
英文摘要: Seasonal changes in the climatic potential for very large wildfires (VLWF ≥ 50,000 ac ~ 20,234 ha) across the western contiguous United States are projected over the 21st century using generalized linear models and downscaled climate projections for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Significant (p ≤ 0.05) increases in VLWF probability for climate of the mid-21st century (2031–2060) relative to contemporary climate are found, for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. The largest differences are in the Eastern Great Basin, Northern Rockies, Pacific Northwest, Rocky Mountains, and Southwest. Changes in seasonality and frequency of VLWFs d7epend on changes in the future climate space. For example, flammability-limited areas such as the Pacific Northwest show that (with high model agreement) the frequency of weeks with VLWFs in a given year is 2–2.7 more likely. However, frequency of weeks with at least one VLWF in fuel-limited systems like the Western Great Basin is 1.3 times more likely (with low model agreement). Thus, areas where fire is directly associated with hot and dry climate, as opposed to experiencing lagged effects from previous years, experience more change in the likelihood of VLWF in future projections. The results provide a quantitative foundation for management to mitigate the effects of VLWFs. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84721
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4,800 Oak Grove Drive, MS 233-300, Pasadena, CA, United States; Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; Pacific Wildland Fire Sciences Laboratory, US Forest Service, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Stavros E.N.,Abatzoglou J.T.,McKenzie D.,et al. Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous Western United States[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-03-04)