DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1223-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027934415
论文题名: Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis
作者: Neubersch D. ; Held H. ; Otto A.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 305
结束页码: 318
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate economics
; Climate target
; Cost-risk analysis
; Integrated assessment
; Optimal climate policy
; Uncertainty
; Value of information
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Cost effectiveness
; Costs
; Decision making
; Economic and social effects
; Risk analysis
; Risk assessment
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate policy
; Climate targets
; Integrated assessment
; Uncertainty
; Value of information
; Cost benefit analysis
; assessment method
; climate change
; cost-benefit analysis
; decision making
; future prospect
; mitigation
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; trade-off
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis (CEA) determines climate policies that reach a given climate target at minimum welfare losses. However, when applied to temperature targets under climate sensitivity uncertainty, decision-makers might be confronted with normatively unappealing negative expected values of future climate information or even infeasible solutions. To tackle these issues, Cost-Risk Analysis (CRA), that trades-off the costs for mitigating climate change against the risk of exceeding climate targets, has been proposed as an extension of CEA under uncertainty. Here we build on this proposition and develop an axiomatically sound CRA for the context of uncertainty and future learning. The main contributions of this paper are: (i) we show, that a risk-penalty function has to be non-concave to avoid counter-intuitive preferences, (ii) we introduce a universally applicable calibration of the cost-risk trade-off, and (iii) we implement the first application of CRA to a numerical integrated assessment model. We find that for a 2°-target in combination with a 66 % compliance level, the expected value of information in 2015 vs. 2075 is between 0.15 % and 0.66 % of consumption every year, and can reduce expected mitigation costs by about one third. (iv) Finally, we find that the relative importance of the economic over the risk-related contribution increases with the target probability of compliance. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84723
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Centre for Earth System Research and Sustainability, University of Hamburg – KlimaCampus, Grindelberg 5, Hamburg, Germany; International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Grindelberg 53, Hamburg, Germany; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Neubersch D.,Held H.,Otto A.. Operationalizing climate targets under learning: An application of cost-risk analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-03-04)