DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0935-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84937074207
论文题名: Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations over the subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA
作者: Elguindi N. ; Giorgi F. ; Turuncoglu U.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 1 起始页码: 7
结束页码: 21
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Climate sensitivity
; Greenhouse-gas forcing
; Higher resolution
; Historical climatologies
; Multi-model ensemble
; Precipitation change
; Representative sample
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
; climate change
; climate modeling
; experimental study
; greenhouse effect
; measurement method
; performance assessment
; precipitation (climatology)
; seasonal variation
; statistical analysis
; surface temperature
; Central America
; South America
; West Asia
英文摘要: We present an assessment of the CMIP5 global model simulations over a subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA (CORDEX RegCM hyper-MAtrix) experiment (Africa, HYMEX-MED (Mediterranean), South America, Central America and West Asia). Three variants of the transformed Mielke measure are used to assess (1) the model skill in simulating surface temperature and precipitation historical climatology, (2) the degree of surface temperature and precipitation change occurring under greenhouse gas forcing, and (3) the consistency of a model’s projected change with that of the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) mean. The majority of models exhibit varying degrees of skill depending on the region and season; however, a few models are identified as performing well globally. We find that resolution improves the model skill in most regional and seasonal cases, especially for temperature. Models with the highest and lowest climate sensitivity, as well as those whose change most resembles the ensemble mean are also discussed. Although the higher resolution models perform better, we find that resolution does not have a statistically significant impact on the models’ response to GHG forcing, indicating that model biases do not play a primary role in affecting the model response to GHG forcing. We also assess the three selected models for the CREMA Phase I experiment (HADGEM2ES, MPI-ESMMR and GFDL-ESM2M) and find that they are characterized by a relatively good level of performance, a range of high to low climate sensitivities and a good consistency with the MME changes, thereby providing a reasonably representative sample of the CMIP5 ensemble. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84728
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey
Recommended Citation:
Elguindi N.,Giorgi F.,Turuncoglu U.. Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations over the subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(1)