DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1147-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957442242
论文题名: Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis
作者: Mikšovský J. ; Brázdil R. ; Štĕpánek P. ; Zahradníček P. ; Pišoft P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2 起始页码: 253
结束页码: 264
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric pressure
; Greenhouse gases
; Long Term Evolution (LTE)
; Regression analysis
; Solar energy
; Volcanoes
; Anthropogenic influence
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Climatic oscillations
; Correlation and regression analysis
; Explanatory variables
; Nonlinear interactions
; North Atlantic oscillations
; Temperature variability
; Atmospheric temperature
英文摘要: Among the key problems associated with the study of climate variability and its evolution are identification of the factors responsible for observed changes and quantification of their effects. Here, correlation and regression analysis are employed to detect the imprints of selected natural forcings (solar and volcanic activity) and anthropogenic influences (amounts of greenhouse gases—GHGs—and atmospheric aerosols), as well as prominent climatic oscillations (Southern Oscillation—SO, North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation—AMO) in the Czech annual and monthly temperature and precipitation series for the 1866–2010 period. We show that the long-term evolution of Czech temperature change is dominated by the influence of an increasing concentration of anthropogenic GHGs (explaining most of the observed warming), combined with substantially lower, and generally statistically insignificant, contributions from the sulphate aerosols (mild cooling) and variations in solar activity (mild warming), but with no distinct imprint from major volcanic eruptions. A significant portion of the observed short-term temperature variability can be linked to the influence of NAO. The contributions from SO and AMO are substantially weaker in magnitude. Aside from NAO, no major influence from the explanatory variables was found in the precipitation series. Nonlinear forms of regression were used to test for nonlinear interactions between the predictors and temperature/precipitation; the nonlinearities disclosed were, however, very weak, or not detectable at all. In addition to the outcomes of the attribution analysis for the Czech series, results for European and global land temperatures are also shown and discussed. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84729
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University, V Holešovičkách 2, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Centre AS CR, Bĕlidla 986/4a, Brno, Czech Republic; Regional Office Brno, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Kroftova 2578/43, Brno, Czech Republic
Recommended Citation:
Mikšovský J.,Brázdil R.,Štĕpánek P.,et al. Long-term variability of temperature and precipitation in the Czech Lands: an attribution analysis[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2)