DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1144-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84956663976
论文题名: Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland
作者: Zubler E.M. ; Fischer A.M. ; Liniger M.A. ; Croci-Maspoli M. ; Scherrer S.C. ; Appenzeller C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2 起始页码: 237
结束页码: 252
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Bayesian frameworks
; Climate change impact
; Climate change scenarios
; Complex topographies
; Kriging with external drifts
; Latitude longitude grid
; Projection uncertainty
; Regional climate models
; Climate change
英文摘要: There is a growing need of the climate change impact modeling and adaptation community to have more localized climate change scenario information available over complex topography such as in Switzerland. A gridded dataset of expected future climate change signals for seasonal averages of daily mean temperature and precipitation in Switzerland is presented. The basic scenarios are taken from the CH2011 initiative. In CH2011, a Bayesian framework was applied to obtain probabilistic scenarios for three regions within Switzerland. Here, the results for two additional Alpine sub-regions are presented. The regional estimates have then been downscaled onto a regular latitude-longitude grid with a resolution of 0.02° or roughly 2 km. The downscaling procedure is based on the spatial structure of the climate change signals as simulated by the underlying regional climate models and relies on a Kriging with external drift using height as auxiliary predictor. The considered emission scenarios are A1B, A2 and the mitigation scenario RCP3PD. The new dataset shows an expected warming of about 1 to 6 °C until the end of the 21st century, strongly depending on the scenario and the lead time. Owing to a large vertical gradient, the warming is about 1 °C stronger in the Alps than in the Swiss lowlands. In case of precipitation, the projection uncertainty is large and in most seasons precipitation can increase or decrease. In summer a distinct decrease of precipitation can be found, again strongly depending on the emission scenario. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84733
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Federal Department of Home Affairs, Operation Center 1, Zurich Airport, Postfach 257, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Zubler E.M.,Fischer A.M.,Liniger M.A.,et al. Localized climate change scenarios of mean temperature and precipitation over Switzerland[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2)