globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1117-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957728162
论文题名:
Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections
作者: Giorgi F.; Coppola E.; Raffaele F.; Diro G.T.; Fuentes-Franco R.; Giuliani G.; Mamgain A.; Llopart M.P.; Mariotti L.; Torma C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期:1
起始页码: 39
结束页码: 51
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Climatology ; Global warming ; Central America ; Climate sensitivity ; Daily precipitations ; Impact assessments ; Land surface scheme ; Precipitation intensity distribution ; Regional differences ; Regional model ; Electric power system interconnection
英文摘要: We analyze changes of four extreme hydroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 projections of the Phase I CREMA experiment, which includes 21st century projections over 5 CORDEX domains (Africa, Central America, South America, South Asia, Mediterranean) with the ICTP regional model RegCM4 driven by three CMIP5 global models. The indices are: Heat Wave Day Index (HWD), Maximum Consecutive Dry Day index (CDD), fraction of precipitation above the 95th intensity percentile (R95) and Hydroclimatic Intensity index (HY-INT). Comparison with coarse (GPCP) and high (TRMM) resolution daily precipitation data for the present day conditions shows that the precipitation intensity distributions from the GCMs are close to the GPCP data, while the RegCM4 ones are closer to TRMM, illustrating the added value of the increased resolution of the regional model. All global and regional model simulations project predominant increases in HWD, CDD, R95 and HY-INT, implying a regime shift towards more intense, less frequent rain events and increasing risk of heat wave, drought and flood with global warming. However, the magnitudes of the changes are generally larger in the global than the regional models, likely because of the relatively low “climate sensitivity” of the RegCM4, especially when using the CLM land surface scheme. In addition, pronounced regional differences in the change signals are found. The data from these simulations are available for use in impact assessment studies. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84736
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Center for Scientific Research and Higher Education (CICESE), Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico; Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, Rua do Matão, 1226, Cid. Universitária, São Paulo, SP, Brazil

Recommended Citation:
Giorgi F.,Coppola E.,Raffaele F.,et al. Changes in extremes and hydroclimatic regimes in the CREMA ensemble projections[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(1)
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