DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1119-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957728124
论文题名: Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain
作者: da Rocha R.P. ; Reboita M.S. ; Dutra L.M.M. ; Llopart M.P. ; Coppola E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 1 起始页码: 95
结束页码: 109
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Greenhouse gases
; Nickel
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Frequency changes
; Future climate projections
; Global circulation model
; Interannual variability
; Positive/negative
; Rainfall anomaly
; Regional climate modeling
; Southern oscillation
; Climate models
英文摘要: Interannual variability over South America (SA) is mainly controlled by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This study investigates the ENSO precipitation signal during austral spring (September–October–November-SON) over SA. Three global circulation models-GCMs-(MPI, GFDL and HadGEM2) are used for RegCM4 (Regional Climate Model version 4) downscaling of the present (1975–2005) near-future (2020–2050) and far-future (2070–2098) climates using two greenhouse gas stabilization scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For the present climate, only HadGEM2 simulates a frequency of El Niño (EN) and La Niña (LN) years similar to the observations. In terms of ENSO frequency changes, only in the far-future RCP8.5 climate there is greater agreement among GCMs, indicating an increase (decrease) of EN (LN) years. In the present climate, validation indicates that only the RegCM4 ensemble mean provides acceptable precipitation biases (smaller than ±20 %) in the two investigated regions. In this period, the GCMs and RegCM4 agree on the relationship between ENSO and precipitation in SA, i.e., both are able to capture the observed regions of positive/negative rainfall anomalies during EN years, with RegCM4 improving on the GCMs’ signal over southeastern SA. For the near and far future climates, in general, the projections indicate an increase (decrease) of precipitation over southeastern SA (northern-northeastern SA). However, the relationship between ENSO and rainfall in most of RegCM4 and GCM members is weaker in the near and far future climates than in the present day climate. This is likely connected with the GCMs’ projection of the more intense ENSO signal displaced to the central basin of Pacific Ocean in the far future compared to present climate. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84744
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá, Brazil; Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy
Recommended Citation:
da Rocha R.P.,Reboita M.S.,Dutra L.M.M.,et al. Interannual variability associated with ENSO: present and future climate projections of RegCM4 for South America-CORDEX domain[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(1)