DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1020-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84913543919
论文题名: Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21st century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification
作者: Elguindi N. ; Grundstein A. ; Bernardes S. ; Turuncoglu U. ; Feddema J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 523
结束页码: 538
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Greenhouse gases
; Moisture
; Classification scheme
; Climate change projections
; Eastern north america
; Moisture conditions
; Multi-model ensemble
; Northern latitudes
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Semi-arid climate
; Climate change
英文摘要: A modified Thornthwaite Climate Classification is applied to a 32-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs in order to 1) evaluate model performance in the historical climate and 2) assess projected climate change at the end of the 21stcentury following two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This classification scheme differs from the well-known Köppen approach as it uses potential evapotranspiration for thermal conditions, a moisture index for moisture conditions, and has even intervals between climate classes. The multi-model ensemble (MME) reproduces the main spatial features of the global climate reasonably well, however, in many regions the climate types are too moist. Extreme climate types, such as those found in polar and desert regions, as well as the cool- and cold-wet types of eastern North America and the warm and cool-moist types found in the southern U.S., eastern South America, central Africa and Europe are reproduced best by the MME. In contrast, the cold-dry and cold-semiarid climate types characterizing much of the high northern latitudes and the warm-wet type found in parts of Indonesia and southeast Asia are poorly represented by the MME. Regionally, most models exhibit the same sign in moisture and thermal biases, varying only in magnitude. Substantial changes in climate types are projected in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Area coverage of torrid climate types expands by 11 % and 19 % in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, respectively. Furthermore, a large portion of these areas in the tropics will experience thermal conditions which exceed the range of historical values and fall into a novel super torrid climate class. The greatest growth in moisture types in climate zones is among those with dry climates (moisture index values < 0) with increased areas of more than 8 % projected by the RCP8.5 MME. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84775
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Earth System Physics Section, The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy; Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States; Center for Geospatial Research, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, United States; Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, Turkey; Department of Geography, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States
Recommended Citation:
Elguindi N.,Grundstein A.,Bernardes S.,et al. Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations and climate change projections for the 21st century using a modified Thornthwaite climate classification[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)