DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-1011-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84955494808
论文题名: Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900
作者: Irish J.L. ; Sleath A. ; Cialone M.A. ; Knutson T.R. ; Jensen R.E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 635
结束页码: 649
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Floods
; Friction
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Wetlands
; Climate condition
; Coastal flooding
; Flood elevations
; Frictional resistance
; Global sea levels
; Hurricane katrina
; Land subsidence
; Sea level trends
; Sea level
英文摘要: Global warming may result in substantial sea level rise and more intense hurricanes over the next century, leading to more severe coastal flooding. Here, observed climate and sea level trends over the last century (c. 1900s to 2000s) are used to provide insight regarding future coastal inundation trends. The actual impacts of Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans are compared with the impacts of a similar hypothetical hurricane occurring c. 1900. Estimated regional sea level rise since 1900 of 0.75 m, which contains a dominant land subsidence contribution (0.57 m), serves as a ‘prototype’ for future climate-change induced sea level rise in other regions. Landform conditions c. 1900 were estimated by changing frictional resistance based on expected additional wetlands at lower sea levels. Surge simulations suggest that flood elevations would have been 15 to 60 % lower c. 1900 than the conditions observed in 2005. This drastic change suggests that significantly more flood damage occurred in 2005 than would have occurred if sea level and climate conditions had been like those c. 1900. We further show that, in New Orleans, sea level rise dominates surge-induced flooding changes, not only by increasing mean sea level, but also by leading to decreased wetland area. Together, these effects enable larger surges. Projecting forward, future global sea level changes of the magnitude examined here are expected to lead to increased flooding in coastal regions, even if the storm climate is unchanged. Such flooding increases in densely populated areas would presumably lead to more widespread destruction. © 2013, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA).
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84778
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States; U.S. Army Engineer Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, 3909 Halls Ferry Road, Vicksburg, MS, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Irish J.L.,Sleath A.,Cialone M.A.,et al. Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) under sea level and climate conditions for 1900[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)