DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1062-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957728128
论文题名: Using simple data experiments to explore the influence of non-temperature controls on maize yields in the mid-West and Great Plains
作者: Shaw S.B. ; Mehta D. ; Riha S.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 4 起始页码: 747
结束页码: 755
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Irrigation
; Moisture
; Regression analysis
; Soil moisture
; Changing climate
; High temperature
; Illinois
; Maize yield
; Minnesota
; Regression model
; Temperature factor
; Yield models
; Climate models
; Zea mays
英文摘要: Several recent papers have suggested that high temperatures are associated with reduced maize yields. To better understand the conditions under which this association may occur, we conduct two analyses on maize yields from 1981 to 2011 for 100 U.S. counties with large areas planted to maize in the mid-West and Great Plains. First, we compare statistical yield models in non-irrigated and extensively irrigated counties, after carefully evaluating the degree of crop irrigation in a county and selecting only counties with no irrigation or extensive irrigation. We find that yields in extensively irrigated counties have minimal dependency on temperature factors in the regression model. Second, we compare statistical yield models across non-irrigated counties using data sets with and without years with known extreme moisture anomalies. We find that for Minnesota, Central Iowa, and Northern Illinois, the sufficiency of yield models based only on temperature factors are highly leveraged by the few years with extreme moisture anomalies. In western Iowa and much of Illinois, temperature factors consistently explain a moderate amount of yield variability, even when extreme moisture anomalies are removed. In general, these findings suggest that in many regions maize yields are not solely dependent on temperature and that other factors (e.g. humidity, soil moisture, flooding) likely need to be accounted for to improve statistical yield models and to make accurate projections of maize yield in a changing climate. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84782
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shaw S.B.,Mehta D.,Riha S.J.. Using simple data experiments to explore the influence of non-temperature controls on maize yields in the mid-West and Great Plains[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(4)