DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1216-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919877322
论文题名: Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India
作者: Mondal P. ; Jain M. ; Robertson A.W. ; Galford G.L. ; Small C. ; DeFries R.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 61
结束页码: 76
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Crops
; Population statistics
; Agricultural system
; Climate parameters
; Climate variability
; Environmental parameter
; Interannual variability
; Mixed-effect models
; Smallholder farmers
; Temperature forecasts
; Climate models
英文摘要: India is predicted to be one of the most vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. Here, we examined the sensitivity of winter cropping systems to inter-annual climate variability in a local market and subsistence-based agricultural system in central India, a data-rich validation site, in order to identify the climate parameters to which winter crops – mainly wheat and pulses in this region – might be sensitive in the future. We used satellite time-series data to quantify inter-annual variability in multiple climate parameters and in winter crop cover, agricultural census data to quantify irrigation, and field observations to identify locations for specific crop types. We developed three mixed-effect models (250 m to 1 km scale) to identify correlations between crop cover (wheat and pulses) and twenty-two climate and environmental parameters for 2001-2013. We find that winter daytime mean temperature (November–January) is the most significant factor affecting winter crops, irrespective of crop type, and is negatively associated with winter crop cover. With pronounced winter warming projected in the coming decades, effective adaptation by smallholder farmers in similar landscapes would require additional strategies, such as access to fine-scale temperature forecasts and heat-tolerant winter crop varieties. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84784
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY, United States; Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Vermont, VT, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mondal P.,Jain M.,Robertson A.W.,et al. Winter crop sensitivity to inter-annual climate variability in central India[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-01-02)