DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1221-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919877184
论文题名: Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model
作者: Pereira-Cardenal S.J. ; Madsen H. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen K. ; Riegels N. ; Jensen R. ; Mo B. ; Wangensteen I. ; Bauer-Gottwein P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 351
结束页码: 364
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dynamic programming
; Hydroelectric power
; Irrigation
; Reservoirs (water)
; Runoff
; Stochastic systems
; Water resources
; Water supply
; Climate change impact
; Environmental objectives
; Hydro power production
; Hydro-power generation
; Hydrological modeling
; Power market modeling
; Precipitation change
; Stochastic dynamic programming
; Climate change
英文摘要: Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that changes in precipitation will reduce runoff, decrease hydropower production (with accompanying increases in thermal generation), and increase irrigation water use, while higher temperatures will shift power demand from winter to summer months. The combined impact of these effects will generally make it more challenging to balance agricultural, power, and environmental objectives in the operation of Iberian reservoirs, though some impacts could be mitigated by better alignment between temporal patterns of irrigation and power demands. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84791
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Environmental Engineering, DTU, Kongens Lyngby, Denmark; DHI, Hørsholm, Denmark; SINTEF Energy Research, Trondheim, Norway; NTNU, Department of Electric Power Engineering, Trondheim, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Pereira-Cardenal S.J.,Madsen H.,Arnbjerg-Nielsen K.,et al. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-03-04)