DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0968-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84890565096
论文题名: Mass-cargo-affine industries and climate change: The vulnerability of bulk cargo companies along the River Rhine to low water periods
作者: Scholten A. ; Rothstein B. ; Baumhauer R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 122, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 111
结束页码: 125
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate impact researches
; Climate scenarios
; Inland navigation
; Iron and steel companies
; Mode of transport
; River discharge
; Seasonal analysis
; Storage capacity
; Iron and steel industry
; Navigation
; Optimization
; Ships
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; bulk cargo
; climate change
; feasibility study
; freight transport
; iron and steel industry
; nature-society relations
; navigation
; river discharge
; ship handling
; storage
; transportation planning
; water level
; waterway transport
; Rhine River
英文摘要: The impact of low water periods on inland navigation and companies is well known by ship-operators and companies that rely on this mode of transport but it is rarely a topic of climate impact research. As climate change might affect the frequency and intensity of low water periods, quantifying the impact of climate change on companies and the effects of possible adaptation measures is vital. In this study, we present a model for quantifying the impact of low water events on companies which rely on inland navigation and apply that model to three anonymous iron and steel companies along the River Rhine. The deviation of optimal storage, the storage level that evens out risk vs. fixed capital, is used in the model to measure the vulnerability of companies. The results show that, depending on the climate scenario, the companies might have to deal with either one or five additional days of empty storage in the near future (2021-2050) and up to nine more days by the 2071-2100 period. Seasonal analysis shows that, consistent with the change in the river discharge, the biggest deviations from optimal storage level occur in the late summer/early autumn. Analysis of adaptation options shows that companies would need to increase storage capacity by 2.5 % for the 2021-2050 period, and by 25 % by the 2071-2100 period. A reduction of ship sizes is not an adaptation option for the three companies in this study, because these companies already use relatively small vessels. This is however an efficient adaptation option for companies which employ larger vessels for transport. Another adaptation option would be to reduce the share of transportation via inland waters, but the feasibility of this option depends on the availability and cost of other modes of transport. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84797
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Wuerzburg, Am Hubland, 97074 Wuerzburg, Germany; University of Applied Sciences Konstanz (HTWG), Brauneggerstr. 55, 78462 Konstanz, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Scholten A.,Rothstein B.,Baumhauer R.. Mass-cargo-affine industries and climate change: The vulnerability of bulk cargo companies along the River Rhine to low water periods[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,122(2018-01-02)