DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1122-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84902163271
论文题名: A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections
作者: Petr M. ; Boerboom L.G.J. ; van der Veen A. ; Ray D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 124, 期: 4 起始页码: 791
结束页码: 803
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Drought
; Risk assessment
; Climate change projections
; Climate projection
; Environmental sector
; Forest production
; Ipcc emissions scenarios
; Potential production
; Probabilistic climate projections
; Weather generator
; Forestry
; adaptive management
; climate change
; coniferous tree
; drought stress
; economic analysis
; forestry production
; growth rate
; numerical model
; risk assessment
; spatiotemporal analysis
; vulnerability
; Drought
; Forestry
; Risk Assessment
; United Kingdom
英文摘要: Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of change in tree growth can be quantified. We assessed the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities calculated from the weather generator data and tree species vulnerabilities using Ecological Site Classification model across Britain. We evaluated the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur), which cover around 59 % (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across the lowlands and uplands. We show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using B1, A1B, and A1FI IPCC emissions scenarios, but varied spatially. We found a maximum reduction of 94 % but also a maximum increase of 56 % in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the state-managed forests for all three species in the 2080s is estimated to decrease due to drought by 42 % in the lowlands and by 32 % in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the state-managed forests in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector. © 2014 The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84799
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands; Forest Research, Forestry Commission, Northern Research Station, EH25 9SY Roslin, Great Britain, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Petr M.,Boerboom L.G.J.,van der Veen A.,et al. A spatial and temporal drought risk assessment of three major tree species in Britain using probabilistic climate change projections[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,124(4)