DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1185-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84905389250
论文题名: Heterogeneous effects of warming and drought on selected wheat variety yields
作者: Tack J. ; Barkley A. ; Nalley L.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 125, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 489
结束页码: 500
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Risk perception
; Agricultural productions
; Coefficient of variation
; Drought conditions
; Heterogeneous effects
; Impact of changes
; Increased temperature
; Triticum aestivum
; Yield reduction
; Drought
; Triticum aestivum
英文摘要: Climate change is likely to significantly impact agricultural production in the Great Plains region of the Central United States. This study estimated the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on wheat (triticum aestivum) variety yield distributions using the moment-based maximum entropy (MBME) model. This approach allows for quantification of potential weather impacts on the yield distribution, and allows these effects to vary across varieties. The unique data set matches wheat variety trial data for 1985 to 2011 with weather data from the exact trial site for 11 locations throughout Kansas. Ten widely-planted varieties with a range of biotic and abiotic characteristics were included for comparison. Weather scenarios were simulated for baseline, increased temperature (one-degree Celsius warming), decreased precipitation (tenth-percentile rainfall outcome), and a combination warming and drought scenario. Warming resulted in an 11 % yield reduction, drought a 22 % reduction, and warming and drought a cumulative 33 % reduction. These effects vary across varieties. Alternative measures of yield risk (e.g. yield variance and coefficient of variation) were also constructed under each scenario and a similar pattern of heterogeneous impacts emerges. The key findings are that (i) exposure to warming and drought lead to mean yield reductions coupled with increased yield risk for all varieties, and (ii) newer (post 2005) seed varieties have a yield advantage over older varieties, however this advantage is reduced under warming and drought conditions. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84803
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Agricultural Economics, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS, United States; Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS, United States; Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tack J.,Barkley A.,Nalley L.L.. Heterogeneous effects of warming and drought on selected wheat variety yields[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,125(2018-03-04)