DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1218-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919876992
论文题名: Dissecting indices of aridity for assessing the impacts of global climate change
作者: Girvetz E.H. ; Zganjar C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 126, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 469
结束页码: 483
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Dissection
; Evapotranspiration
; Moisture
; Aridity index
; Future climate
; General circulation
; Global climate changes
; Moisture deficit
; Precipitation change
; Rising temperatures
; Water cycling
; Climate change
英文摘要: There is great interest in understanding how climate change will impact aridity through the interaction of precipitation changes with rising temperatures. The Aridity Index (AI), Climatic Moisture Deficit (CMD), and Climatic Moisture Surplus (CMS) are metrics commonly used to quantify and map patterns in aridity and water cycling. Here we show that these metrics have different patterns of change under future climate—based on an ensemble of nine general circulation climate models—and the different metrics are appropriate for different purposes. Based on these differences between the metrics, we propose that aridity can be dissected into three different types—hydrological (CMS), agricultural (CMD), and meteorological. In doing this, we propose a novel modified version of the Aridity Index, called AI+, that can be useful for assessing changes in meteorological aridity. The AI + is based on the same ratio between precipitation and evapotranspiration as the traditional AI, but unlike the traditional AI, the AI + only accounts for changes to precipitation during months when precipitation is less than reference/potential evapotranspiration (i.e. there is a deficit). Moreover, we show that the traditional AI provides a better estimate of change in moisture surplus driven by changes to precipitation during the wet season, rather than changes in deficit that occur during the drier seasons. These results show that it is important to select the most appropriate metric for assessing climate driven changes in aridity. © 2014, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84817
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: International Center for Tropical Agriculture, PO Box 823-00621, Nairobi, Kenya; University of Washington School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, United States; The Nature Conservancy Central Science Program, 4245 North Fairfax Dr, Arlington, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Girvetz E.H.,Zganjar C.. Dissecting indices of aridity for assessing the impacts of global climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,126(2018-03-04)