| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1094-3
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84898543967
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| 论文题名: | Coal's medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization |
| 作者: | Daenzer K.; Wing I.S.; Fisher-Vanden K.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 123, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 763
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| 结束页码: | 783
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Coal
; Computable general equilibrium
; Energy production
; Energy use
; Trade
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| Scopus关键词: | Carbon dioxide
; Coal industry
; Commerce
; Economic analysis
; Energy utilization
; Greenhouse gases
; International trade
; Stabilization
; Atmospheric greenhouse
; Climate stabilization
; Computable general equilibrium
; Computable general equilibrium model
; Energy productions
; Energy use
; Future coal productions
; Technological change
; Coal
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| 英文摘要: | We assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes, investigating how the quantity and location of future coal production, trade and use depends upon five factors: the supply-side constraint of resource depletion, diversification and deepening of international trade, economic growth, trends in energy intensity, and the availability of coal-fired carbon-free electric generation technology (IGCC-CCS). Using the Phoenix computable general equilibrium model of the world economy, we find that coal is sensitive to demand-side assumptions about economic growth and energy-saving structural or technological change. In a 550 ppm stabilization emission tax scenario, the gobal coal industry initially declines sharply and then rebounds, in 2050 reaching roughly the same size as it is today-but only if IGCC-CCS is available by 2020. Under alternative stabilization regimes, IGCC-CCS penetration is a key influence on production and imports in major coal regions, where it interacts with extraction costs driven by the rate of depletion relative to trade partners. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84818
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Pennsylvania State University, 111 Armsby Building, University Park, PA, 16802, United States; Boston University, Boston, MA, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Daenzer K.,Wing I.S.,Fisher-Vanden K.. Coal's medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,123(2018-03-04)
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