DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1162-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922000407
论文题名: Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity
作者: Dunford R. ; Harrison P.A. ; Jäger J. ; Rounsevell M.D.A. ; Tinch R.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2014
卷: 128, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 339
结束页码: 354
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Climate impacts
; Ecosystem services
; Integrated assessment
; Integrated modelling
; It focus
; Socio-economic change
; Socio-economics
; Storylines
; Climate change
英文摘要: Addressing climate change vulnerability requires an understanding of both the level of climate impacts and the capacity of the exposed population to cope. This study developed a methodology for allowing users to explore vulnerability to changes in ecosystem services as a result of climatic and socio-economic changes. It focuses on the vulnerability of Europe across multiple sectors by combining the outputs of a regional integrated assessment (IA) model, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, with maps of coping capacity based on the five capitals approach. The presented methodology enables stakeholder-derived socio-economic futures to be represented within a quantitative integrated modelling framework in a way that changes spatially and temporally with the socio-economic storyline. Vulnerability was mapped for six key ecosystem services in 40 combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. The analysis shows that, whilst the north and west of Europe are generally better placed to cope with climate impacts than the south and east, coping could be improved in all areas. Furthermore, whilst the lack of coping capacity in dystopian scenarios often leads to greater vulnerability, there are complex interactions between sectors that lead to patterns of vulnerability that vary spatially, with scenario and by sector even within the more utopian futures. © 2014, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84840
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, OX1 3QY, Oxford, United Kingdom; Sustainable Europe Research Institute, Vienna, Austria; School of GeoScience, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Iodine SPRL, Brussels, Belgium
Recommended Citation:
Dunford R.,Harrison P.A.,Jäger J.,et al. Exploring climate change vulnerability across sectors and scenarios using indicators of impacts and coping capacity[J]. Climatic Change,2014-01-01,128(2018-03-04)